Automotive Market Dynamics:
The European automotive market is undergoing profound structural changes, with direct and lasting consequences for automotive logistics and finished vehicle transport.
In 2023, European car production increased by 11.3%, reaching 12.1 million passenger vehicles. While this marks a solid recovery, production volumes remain well below pre-COVID levels, reflecting ongoing supply-chain disruptions and cautious OEM outlooks.
At the same time, vehicle imports into the European Union surged by 23.7%, rising to 3.3 million units, largely driven by electric vehicles imported from China. These evolving trade patterns are reshaping automotive logistics flows across Europe, placing significant pressure on major vehicle ports such as Zeebrugge, Bremerhaven, and Koper, which are increasingly acting as congested storage hubs rather than fluid transit gateways.
Yet this disruption also creates opportunity. Rising import volumes open new possibilities for backhaul optimization and better balancing of port-to-inland and east–west flows, provided that rail logistics capacity and coordination are effectively managed.
Changing Vehicle Mix: A Growing Challenge for Rail Logistics
Beyond volumes, the composition of vehicles being transported is changing rapidly, with direct implications for rail logistics and transport assets:
- SUVs now account for more than 51% of new car registrations in Europe, increasing average vehicle dimensions.
- Electric vehicles represented 14.6% of registrations in 2023, with forecasts pointing to 50–70% EV penetration by 2030.
- As a result, average vehicle weight continues to rise, driven by battery mass and larger vehicle formats.
This evolution is placing unprecedented pressure on rail logistics for finished vehicles. Heavier and wider SUVs and EVs require flexible, modern rail wagons, yet only around 25% of Europe’s current automotive rail fleet is suitable for transporting these vehicles efficiently.
The consequence is a structural rail wagon capacity gap, which industry experts expect to persist for the next five to ten years, despite ongoing investments. For OEMs and logistics providers, this makes early capacity securing, optimized wagon utilization, and real-time visibility on rail operations critical success factors.
Carbon Taxes: The Meter Is Running
Europe’s primary carbon pricing mechanism, the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS), is entering a new phase. With ETS2, carbon pricing is being extended to road transport, buildings, and maritime logistics. While monitoring obligations began in 2025, full financial exposure is expected from 2027–2028, depending on energy price conditions.
Carbon prices have already exceeded €80–100 per ton of CO₂, and forecasts show a sustained upward trend. According to recent industry calculations, at €100/tCO₂, a single 600-km vehicle transport can carry up to €18 of carbon cost per car. Multiply that by hundreds of thousands of vehicles, and carbon is no longer an externality—it is a line item
The automotive sector itself is also under tight carbon pressure. At the same time, EU Regulation 2019/631 tightens CO₂ fleet targets for OEMs. Between 2025 and 2029, average emissions must remain around 93.6 g CO₂/km, with further reductions expected toward 2030. While OEMs can average performance over three years (2025–2027).. Manufacturers that exceed their targets face significant penalties, making carbon performance a real financial concern.
Road Transport Is Paying the Price
For years, trucks were the default in automotive logistics: flexible, familiar, and fast. But under ETS2, CBAM, and stricter CO₂ targets (such as the Regulation EU 2019/631), the cost of emissions in roadfreight and vehicle distribution is becoming unavoidable. In practice, this means carbon exposure now follows vehicles and components across the entire logistics chain.
Trucks, moving components from suppliers or shipping finished vehicles to distribution hubs, now carry a carbon “surcharge” on top of fuel, labor, and congestion costs. Add CBAM, which is progressively introducing carbon costs on imported materials like steel and aluminum, and logistics stops being just about moving parts from A to B: it becomes a growing issue on the balance sheet.
Incremental fixes like “greener trucks” or better routing help, but only to a point. For high-volume, long-distance automotive flows, road transport alone simply can’t deliver the level of emission reductions that are currently expected.
A Strategic Shift
The numbers are clear: every extra truck is a cost in euros and CO₂.
In Europe, road freight emits several times more CO₂ per ton-kilometer than rail. Typical benchmarks show:
- Road freight: ~90–120 g CO₂ / tkm
- Rail freight: ~15–20 g CO₂ / tkm (depending on energy mix)
That represents up to nine times less CO₂ for the same transport flow.
Real-life automotive cases confirm this gap. Transporting a 1.5-ton vehicle over 600 km by rail can reduce emissions by approximately 78% compared to road; saving roughly 180 kg of CO₂ per vehicle
When carbon prices rise, every avoided truck directly translates into avoided cost.
Getting Back on Track
Rail also offers structural advantages that align with long-term automotive logistics needs:
- Scalability: One train driver can replace up to 30 truck drivers, a critical advantage amid chronic driver shortages.
- Predictable costs: Rail is less exposed to fossil fuel price volatility and ETS2 fuel penalties.
- Electrification: A large share of Europe’s rail network is already electrified or transitioning to low-carbon energy.
- Efficiency on long distances: Rail becomes economically competitive from 400–600 km onward, especially when volumes are consolidated.
As a result, OEMs across Europe are actively increasing their rail share, securing long-term contracts, investing in wagon capacity, and rethinking their outbound logistics strategies. Rail is no longer seen as a fallback option, but as the backbone of finished vehicle logistics
Operational Reality: Rail Needs Control and Visibility
However, shifting volume to rail is not just a modal decision. The 2024 European rail logistics study highlights persistent challenges:
- Limited availability of flexible wagons, especially for heavier EVs and SUVs
- Infrastructure bottlenecks at ports, compounds, and rail corridors
- Fragmented coordination between OEMs, LSPs, rail operators, and asset providers
- Outdated IT systems, manual processes, and lack of real-time visibility
One issue stands out clearly:
Rail can only deliver its full cost and carbon benefits if it is actively managed, monitored, and optimized.
This is where digitalization becomes a decisive enabler.
From Rail Strategy to Execution: The Role of Everysens’ TVMS
Choosing rail is the strategic decision. Managing rail efficiently is the operational challenge. This is precisely where Everysens comes into play.
Our TVMS provides real-time visibility on wagons, trains, and rail flows, enabling OEMs and logistics teams to:
- Track wagons end-to-end across rail and intermodal networks
- Monitor ETAs, dwell times, and disruptions in real time
- Coordinate rail, truck, port, and compound operations more effectively
- Reduce waiting times, asset immobilization, and operational friction
- Measure CO₂ emissions and carbon savings per flow
By integrating rail into a single Transport Visibility & Management System (TVMS), Everysens allows logistics teams to transform rail from a black box into a controllable, measurable, and optimizable transport mode.
Explore how Everysens transforms logistics for the automotive industry!
